Major currencies this week

(c)Mataf.net Trading Forex and Currency relative strength index

THE EUR/USD

After reachiing a high of 1.6039 in june 2008, the euro fell to a low of 1.2329 in the fall of 2008 and again in early 2009. It did retrace 75% of its losses gainst the usd reaching 1,5115 by the fall of 2009. However it has been in a steady decline since then and  reached a low of 1.2143 on May 16th 2010.

GBP/USD

The british pound reached a high of 2.0150 in the summer of 2008 and fell to a low of 1.3501 by the end of 2008.  In 2009 it did retrace some of its losses against the usd by almost reaching thee 50% retrace of 1.6456 but somehow never quite attaining it. However since the end of year 2009 it has been declining steadily  reaching lows in the 1,44 range (May 2010) which could indicate that it will be headed  towards the 1.35 range which represents a 100% retrace of its gains vs the usd.

GOLD

For those wishing to trade Gold you need to know that the increase in the price of Gold has little to do with gold “fever”. The factors that contribute to the appreciation in the price of Gold are very real and Gold plays an important role in the preservation of capital. Gold plays an important role in preserving the investors wealth and purchasing power. Gold increases in price only to the extent that its function is to preserve the wealth and purchasing power of investors, and anything else would defeat its purpose. Because gold is a hedge against inflation and the loss in value of other assets, the price of gold must move in a direction opposite that of other assets. Because gold is there to preserve the value of investors capital when other investments classes are losing value, its price has to vary inversely to that of the main types of financial assets.

In very simple terms, Gold will appreciate when several factors obtain. Namely high inflation and taxes and under-performing stocks and bonds markets. If these cannot provide investors with a return that is judged sufficient to preserve investors capital then Gold will play the role that was created for it as a preserver of wealth,  “a store of wealth”. (read more)

Ever since it broke through the 1000$ per ounce level in 2009 gold has been on an upswing. The level to watch for gold is anything under 1046 per ounce as this would indicate a trend downwards for some time to come, The value of the usd and markets need to be observed carefully as any increase there would bring a depreciation of the value of gold.

USD/CAD

The canadian dollar reached parity with the usd this week. This is due largelky to the increase in the cost of oil and some weakness in the usd. Continued increases in the cost of oil could account for more  appreciation of the loonie, as would an increase in interest rates. The latter would be VERY unlikely at this time.

The usd reached over 1.39 cad last year and has been in steady decline since. Parity with the cad would seem the lowest the usd could afford to go at this time. The cost of oil is very high and a low usd only makes it more so. There appears to be some movement upwards for the usd  this week as it broke above the trendline.

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